2020-10-06 • Updated
The US dollar waned amid the current risk-on sentiment, driven by many reasons. First of all, Donald Trump returned to the White House after spending three days in the hospital. On Friday, he was positively tested on Covid-19, but on Monday evening doctors let him go as he felt better. Secondly, US officials are planning to impose a fiscal stimulus package, which investors have been waiting for. Elsewhere, US and European PMI reports came out better than analysts expected, boosting risk-on sentiment as well.
Today ECB’s President Lagarde delivered a speech and pointed to the uncertain and shaky recovery ahead. Moreover, she emphasized that the ECB is “very attentive” to the exchange rate as officials aren’t satisfied with the current strong euro, which dampens the EU export and weighs on inflation.
Later on, the Fed will speak as well, which will add fresh volatility to EUR/USD. A more hawkish statement will underpin the USD, while a more dovish tone will weigh on the dollar.
EUR/USD has bounced off the 200-period moving average of 1.1800 and headed to the downside. The move below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.17640 will increase chances for the pair to dip lower and retest the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.17050. However, the 1.17640 level has been acting as strong support, and EUR/USD has failed to break it many times. That’s why, we can assume that the same case may happen again this time, and the pair might reverse and jump higher. Resistance levels are at the 200-period moving average of 1.1800 and the 50.0% Fibo level of 1.1810.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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