Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Is it time to sell EUR/USD?
2021-04-05 • Updated
What happened?
The last week has ended with greater-than-expected NFP, but weaker average hourly earnings. 916,000 people were employed during March, while the forecast was only 647,000. Average hourly earnings dropped by 0.1%, whereas growth of 0.1% was anticipated. As a result, since NFP comes better, but earnings – worse, the USD will spike at first, but it will fall with the second wave.
Europe’s poor vaccination rollout and prolonged lockdowns keep pressing down the EUR. Unlike the EU, the USA is in a much better position. Biden claimed a goal of 200 million vaccinations in his first 100 days and unveiled the 2$ trillion infrastructure plan. As a result, Treasury yields surged. And as we know, rising yields would push the US dollar up.
Forecast
According to ING, EUR/USD is likely to dip further this week. So far, support at 1.1700 has been held, but the pair may break down to the low of 1.16 this week.
Technical analysis
EUR/USD is moving in a descending channel. On the weekly chart, the way down is constrained by the 50-week moving average of 1.1735. If it manages to break it and then crosses 1.1700, it should fall to November’s low at 1.1630. On the flip side, if it crosses the high of April 2 at 1.1790, it may jump to the 200-day moving average of 1.1870.
Similar
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
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Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...